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rfe · Joined: 02 Mar 2005 Posts: 1

What types of fleets, or other targeted vehicles, are included in the Chicago, Minneapolis and Denver test markets?

Is there a URL where I can obtain more information about the objectives of the tests in those areas?

specialgreen · Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2005 3:34 pm Post subject:

The main driver of the "test markets" is the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct, http://www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/epact/ ), which is implemented by mandatory rules for government fleets in the EPAct Fleet Regulations, and through the voluntary efforts of DoE's Clean Cities program ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/cleancities ). Basically, Fleet Regulations requires that government fleets switch some of their vehicles to alternative-fuels, while Clean Cities builds coalitions with government, nonprofit and commercial groups to help the marketplace deliver the technology and fuels needed to support the government fleets. Additionally, Clean Cities tries to make the vehicles and fuels used by the government fleets available to the general public.

The main goal of Clean Cities appears to be to reduce or displace 9 billion total barrels of petroleum by 2010, and 1 billion barrels per day by 2020 (nice luxury, to have a project with a 28-year completion horizon!). The first goal will almost certainly be met by ethanol alone (US ethanol production is currently above 3bn barrels per year). The second goal will require coordinated efforts in all areas of the Clean Cities program (idle reduction, conservation, alternative fuels, blended fuels, etc.). Basically, the goal of Clean Cities is trying to cut national petroleum consumption.

As part of the E-85 effort, a Clean Cities coalition including DoE and Ford selected Chicago, Denver and the Twin Cities of Minnesota as markets which would be featured to "raise awareness" of E-85. I haven't read anything about this effort having a clear, measurable goal. While the DoE has a roadmap for their Clean Cities project, it appears to me that each Clean Cities coalition is a separate project, coordinating efforts of any interested parties, to help support the Clean Cities goals. But those coalition projects may not have measurable goals of their own.

In Minnesota, Clean Cities is working through a coalition headed-up by the American Lung Association of MN, Ford, DoE, Corn Growers Assoc., and a bunch of government environmental, transportation, agriculture and business offices. Interestingly, I don't see any coalition partners who represent the interest of fueling stations (unless you count the Department of Commerce).

So what would constitute a "success?" within these three test markets? And will there be some point when the coalition would say "We didn't succeed; let's remove the E-85 pumps and go home"? It doesn't appear that the public/private/nonprofit coalitions are organized in that fashion. So perhaps the term "test market" is misleading: there is no academic test. There are congressmen lobbying for financial support for ethanol producers; and farmers lobbying for the same thing; and consumers wanting to buy and use ethanol. If the public interest doesn't support ethanol, then E-85 sales will slump, the GSA will be the only customer, gas stations will raise the price, and eventually even the GSA will retire its fleet of FFVs, and not replace it. In that light, the test market is "succeeding" every month that ethanol consumption increases.

The main fleets involved in Minnesota are USPS, USGSA, and the State of Minnesota fleets. All three cities are GSA fleet centers near "corn country", so that is probably one reason that the three were chosen.

Since the E-85 pumps are open to the public at many gas stations within the test markets, "targeted vehicles" for E-85 includes any privately-owned Flex Fuel Vehicle. All three major US car manufacturers have been making Flex-Fuel versions of their vehicles for years; in some cases, the typical model sold at the dealer is a Flex-Fuel Vehicle (although the buyer may not know that). This means that there are potentially thousands of consumer vehicles already on the road, which are part of the target market. Usually, the models which are available in FFV versions are those which are popular for use by government fleets (don't look for an E-85 FFV sportscar): vans, light trucks, and a few SUVs and sedans.